Monday, May 7, 2007

Data to back up Andrew's Comments

Andrew made an appeal to all good Democrats to come to the aid of their party, even in districts where there is not an immediate, obvious payback. I thought that I would add some data to show what is really happening in the 46th CD.

The Secretary of State's office published voter registration numbers for the state on several regular schedules. In February of odd numbered years, they publish what is called an Odd Year Report. These generally represent bed rock voters in the district as the number of registered voters will increase as we get closer to major elections, especially presidential elections like we will have in 2008.

So, let's compare voter registration number in the 46th CD in 2005 and 2007. I added 3 of the smaller parties as they really complete the profile of the district. The table below show that there was a 2% drop in both Republican and Democratic Registration and a 4% rise in the numbers who Declined to State their party connection. The only one of the smaller parties that gained in registration was the American Independent Party (AIP), an illustration of the role that the immigration issue plays in this district. The AIP is essentially a single issue party.

My conclusion is that the profile of the district is changing and that, while the Republicans are losing registration, no other party has been able to capture the voters that left. That would argue for a very low turnout in 2006, which is exactly what we had in the Congressional election. Give the voters an alternative to the same old Dana, someone with fresh ideas and enthusiasm, someone with a compelling narrative as to why they challenging to status quo, and this district will respond.

Democratic 121.254
Republican 186,271
DTS 69,191
Libertarian 3,040
Am. Ind. Pty 7,670

Democratic 119,015
Republican 181,880
DTS 72,280
Libertarian 3,043
Am. Ind. Pty 7,801

No comments: